I second this. It’s fairly well-known that earnouts are almost never hit. It also happened to me in our acquisition so I can vouch, at least anecdotally.
This isn’t at the crux of your original question but worth noting: You should only take the deal if you’re happy in a scenario where you do not hit the earnout.
If it’s any consolation, I’m stuck in idea limbo as well. Seems like I find an idea, get super excited about it for a week or two, sometimes even build an MVP (easy trap to fall into when you’re also a dev), and then lose interest or talk myself out of it two weeks later.
I’m really frustrated because I want to start working on actual business problems but I can’t even get past the starting line.
So hey, you’re not alone.