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Joined 11 months ago
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Cake day: October 27th, 2023

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  • Everyone wants to start from scratch, but there are so many unknowns that doing so is usually a bad choice on a risk adjusted basis. The earlier comment about rolling a die is applicable. If this is 20% of your net worth, give it a go. If it is 90%, maybe reconsider.

    If this is a significant investment, and it sounds like it is, consider looking for an existing coffee shop and buying it. Ideally, you can finance through the cash flow of the business working with a business development agency or similar “patient capital”. They’ll do things like interest only first year, balloon payment eighth year, etc, to keep your cash flow positive. If you get to balloon and can’t pay, they’ll usually refinance over a term. That gives you the ability to make positive changes, increase profits, grow the business, and then pay down the debt, instead of struggling to get established under a heavy debt burden.

    I’m working on an acquisition now and the financial model with the right financing is key to making it work. The business has a 25% annual growth rate and is currently generating good cash flow and profits. We’re buying the business for a reasonable multiple of earnings, but really need the business to grow another 25% to be able to make a dent on the debt we’ll need to take on. Having payments deferred and the first year interest only is the key to making it work. After that, the debt gets paid off over 6 years, and after that it starts paying some serious dividends.

    We’re able to borrow about 80% of the purchase price because the business has a demonstrated track record with predictable growth and profit trends. With a new start up, you’ll be lucky to finance 40%.